Dec 18

CPF All-in-one ExamFOCUS Study Notes & Review Questions 2015

CPF Certified Professional Forecaster Exams All-in-one ExamFOCUS Study Notes & Review Questions 2015
Covering module 1, 2 & 3

The CBF exams target those who work on the supply side. Topics are relevant to supply chain forecasting so you must know SCM (supply chain management) inside and out in addition to understanding the various business forecast techniques. To pass the CBF exams, I suggest that you do lots of readings – readings that are about the current industry trend, the best practices, case analysis or even commercials. Know what is happening in the supply world. Know how good or bad different forecast techniques are. From these readings you should be able to build up the “business sense” you need for passing the exams.

There are 3 exams in the CPF program. They are:

Exam 1
– Role of Forecasting & Planning in Decision Making
– Demand Planning (Demand Sensing, Shaping, & Creating)
– Forecasting & Planning Process
– Consumption (POS Data) Based Forecasting & Planning
– Consensus Forecasting & Planning
– Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) Process
– Collaborative, Planning, Forecasting, & Replenishment (CPFR)

Exam 2
– Data Analysis & Treatment
– Fundamentals of Models & Modeling
– Types of Models
– Time Series Models
– Model Selection
– Metrics: Measuring Forecast Error and Performance

Exam 3
– Forecast Reporting & Presentation
– Forecast Communication
– Winning Support and Confidence of Management
– Getting Buy-in from Stakeholders

Instead of following the “official” topic flow, this book is structured into parts. The first part deals with knowledge on supply chain. The other parts deal with all sorts of business forecasting techniques and methods. Think of part 1 as the foundation knowledge you need to prepare for the exams.

The 3 exams have topics that are inter-related. We therefore like to recommend that you study all of them together instead of studying on a per-exam basis. Get yourself fully prepared on ALL topics prior to sitting any single exam. Do not attempt to take the exams unless you have hands-on skills making forecasts. This study notes provide study material for exam preparation. However, this is not intended to be used as a tutorial on statistics or forecasting techniques. You should go through sufficient hands on exercises before using this study notes.

A competent test taker will always use multiple resources for preparation. There are other readings you will find helpful in learning the subjects. Topics not listed in the official subject list may still show up in the exams for purpose of distraction. Therefore, do as many readings as possible.

        

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTIES, TRADEMARKS AND COPYRIGHTS 1
CONTENTS UPDATE 2
PAGE FORMATTING AND TYPEFACE 2
EXAM TOPICS COVERED IN THIS BOOK 2
QUICK REVIEW QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS SET 1 7
QUICK REVIEW QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS SET 2 11
SCM 16
OVERVIEW 16
BASIC STRATEGIC PLANNING 18
LEVELS OF STRATEGY FORMULATION 19
TYPES OF ENTERPRISE 20
E- SUPPLY CHAIN AND E-SCM 20
SUPPLY CHAIN DECISIONS, MODELS AND METHODS 21
SUPPLY CHAIN MODELING AND INTEGRATION 22
SCOR 22
SUPPLY CHAIN DESIGN 23
SUPPLY CHAIN REENGINEERING AND COLLABORATION 24
SUPPLY CHAIN VISIBILITY, INTELLIGENCE, EVENT MANAGEMENT AND CHANNEL MANAGEMENT 26
SUPPLY CHAIN ORGANIZATIONAL DYNAMICS 26
SUPPLY CHAIN METRICS 27
CPFR 29
SUPPLY CHAIN CONFLICTS RESOLUTION AND ADR 30
SUPPLY CHAIN CSR AND ETHICS 31
GREEN SUPPLY CHAIN 33
ENVIRONMENTALLY RESPONSIBLE PROCUREMENT 33
BOM 34
PRODUCT DESIGN DOCUMENTS 37
SKU 38
EOQ 38
SWOT, MBO AND MBE 44
MRP AND MRP 2 45
ERP 46
OVERVIEW OF S&OP 47
S&OP STAGES AND COMPONENTS 48
EFFECTIVE S&OP 49
CAPACITY MANAGEMENT 51
CP, CRP AND CPFR 52
RATED CAPACITY 53
CAPACITY CONTROL 54
KAIZEN 54
BSC 55
VCA 55
COST BEHAVIOR 56
PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT, ROI AND BENCHMARKING 58
OVERVIEW OF IT AND SCM 59
DATA MINING 60
DATAWAREHOUSING 61
INTERNET, EDI, XML, PORTAL AND E-BUSINESS 62
TECHNOLOGIES FOR SEARCH AND OPTIMIZATION 63
COLLABORATION AND COMMUNICATION 64
THE CONCEPT OF VIRTUAL VALUE CHAIN 65
DEMAND PLANNING AND FORECASTING 67
OVERVIEW 67
PLANNING THE DEMAND 67
DEMAND MANAGEMENT VS DEMAND PLANNING 68
DEMAND FORECASTING 70
DEMAND FORECASTING IN-DEPTH 71
SALES FORECASTING 75
STATISTICAL TOOLS FOR FORECASTING 76
MOVING AVERAGE 77
QUANTITATIVE VS QUALITATIVE FORECASTING 78
PROBLEM DIS-AGGREGATION AND DECOMPOSITION 78
ERRORS AND INACCURACY 79
ABC CLASSIFICATION 80
OTHER ANALYSIS METHODS 81
BULLWHIP EFFECT 81
VMI, QR, ECR AND PROFILE REPLENISHMENT 83
POS DATA 84
APPLICATIONS FOR FORECASTING IN SCM 86
QUANTITATIVE METHODS AND FORECASTING TECHNIQUES 88
OVERVIEW OF THE JOB FUNCTION AND THE RELEVANT SKILLS 88
ETHICS, CREDITABILITY, OBJECTIVITY AND QUALITY IN THE FORECASTING PROCESS 89
OVERVIEW OF STATISTICAL METHODS 90
MEASURES OF VARIABILITY AND DISTRIBUTION 91
CORRELATION ANALYSIS AND CONTINGENCY ANALYSIS 92
STATISTICAL INFERENCE 93
DATA PREPARATION 94
SEASONALITY AND OUTLIERS 95
FORECAST TRACKING 97
FORECASTING APPROACHES AND CLASSIFICATIONS 97
QUANTITATIVE VS QUALITATIVE FORECASTING 100
PLANNING A FORECAST 101
MODELS & METHODS SELECTION AND COMBINATION 102
DYNAMIC MODELING 103
EQUATIONS FORMULATION AND SELECTION 103
THE TIME SCALE 103
MEASURING FORECAST QUALITY 105
SENSITIVITY 106
TIME SERIES 108
CAUSAL ANALYSIS 109
REGRESSION VS SMOOTHING 109
SMOOTHING AND MOVING AVERAGE 111
MORE ON QUANTITATIVE METHODS AND FORECASTING TECHNIQUES 112
CONSENSUS AND SYNTHESIS 112
CONSENSUS MEETING 113
MODELS, TOOLS AND THEORIES FOR DECISION MAKING 113
CPFR REVISITED 114
FORECASTING TRENDS AND CYCLES 116
PRESENTING TRENDS 116
SEASONALITY VS CYCLES VS IRREGULARITIES 117
EXTRACTING HIDDEN DATA 118
CROSS-IMPACT MATRIX AND SCENARIO BASED METHOD 118
THE IMPORTANCE OF COMMUNICATION AND COOPERATION 119
BUY-IN 120
FORECAST CONSUMPTION 121
PRESENTING FORECASTS 122

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